Ceasefire by Arms Deliveries
Two Scenarios for Ukraine
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Western states are supplying Ukraine with ever larger amounts of weapons in ever improving quality. At the same time, there are growing calls to stop the deliveries and start negotiations for a ceasefire. In Germany, the “Manifesto for Peace” has received considerable support. Implementation of the de-mands would lead to direct German support for Russia’s policy of war and conquest, destroy Ukraine in its present form, and shake up the global order. German national pacifism would create a serious existential crisis for the EU and NATO. A peace policy is only conceivable as a European and transatlantic one. Russia and Ukraine are not yet ready for ceasefire negotiations. But it does already make sense to develop scenarios for negotiated solutions. Neither warring party will achieve its maximum war aims militarily.
(Osteuropa 12/2022, pp. 31–45)