Russia’s Economy in 2016
The Fundamentals of a Fundamental Crisis
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
Russia faces a fundamental economic crisis. However, this will not lead to rapid collapse. Foreign exchange reserves are large, the banking system so far rather stable. There is no threat of social unrest either. The political leadership is concentrating on maintaining its power and pursuing particularistic interests. This exacerbates the situation. Without a basic new start, Russia will remain trapped in the natural resources cycle and will continue to slide backwards. The only way out is to increase legal security. Only when there is no longer a daily risk of losing property will capital flight and the outflow of highly qualified people stop.
(Osteuropa 5/2016, pp. 33–49)