New Fronts after the War
Russia, the West, and the Future in the South Caucasus
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
The August 2008 war between Georgia and Russia drastically changed the situation in the Caucasus and strained relations between Russia and the West. Russia’s military success could prove a Pyrrhic victory. Georgia’s orientation to the West is bound to be permanent. Armenia has been geopolitically isolated by the new strategic situation. It must orient its foreign policy anew. This has brought movement to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. If Georgia is accepted into NATO and the West insists on Georgia’s territorial integrity, then the illegal presence of Russian troops on NATO territory would have to be discussed. Deescalation of the situation can only be achieved by Russia recognising the independence of Kosovo and the West that of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
(Osteuropa 11/2008, pp. 5–18)