On the Brink
An Undesirable Trend in the Northern Caucasus
Deutsche Fassung
Abstract
In Chechnya, large-scale military operations are no longer underway. Moscow has noticeably reduced its troops there. Nonetheless, the situation remains tense. While Moscow is transferring responsibility to local authorities in Chechnya, it is betting on centralised control and a stronger military presence in the rest of the Caucasus. Both approaches are problematic. Russia’s with-drawal from Chechnya could bring in its wake greater risk of an inner-Chechen conflict. Its conspicuous appearance as a police power in the other republics of the Northern Caucasus could upset the delicate balance in the region and promote the growth of Islamist rebel groups.
(Osteuropa 7/2006, pp. 33–54)